A comparative analysis of economic trends in the nine states that do not levy an income tax and the nine states that levy the highest top income tax rates found that the latter group performed significantly better on more than half a dozen measures of economic well-being, a new report from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy shows.
The analysis is particularly relevant as federal lawmakers consider cutting personal and corporate income tax rates, and have begun looking to the states for lessons on how those cuts might unfold. Some analysts have pointed to the Kansas experiment, wherein state lawmakers drastically cut income taxes, as a cautionary tale. After three rounds of tax changes in 2012, 2013 and 2015, the state’s economy failed to grow as Gov. Sam Brownback and his allies in the state legislature promised, and the state could not raise enough revenue to fully fund basic services such as education.
While Kansas is a particularly dramatic example of drastic tax cuts gone awry, this study offers a broader look at the economic performance of states with starkly different income tax policies. Lawmakers and pundits often claim the economic success in low- and no-income tax states is proof that a deep federal tax cut would unleash significant economic growth, but this study shows that the growth occurring in these states is not particularly remarkable.
“This report confirms what our research and other national research has shown by respected, nonpartisan economists — that income tax cuts are not a surefire way to grow a state’s economy,” said Ted Boettner, executive director of the WV Center on Budget and Policy. “While some lawmakers have touted that no-income tax states grow faster, this report highlights that this is faulty logic. We need to fix our state’s upside-down tax code and invest in the things that really promote broad based economic growth, such as colleges, schools, and health care that are paramount to moving our state forward.” It also shows that although the purported economic benefits of forgoing income taxes have not materialized, states without personal income taxes do stand out in a different way: their reliance on regressive sales and excise taxes has resulted in above-average tax rates for low-income families, and lower overall tax rates on the wealthy than any other state in the nation.
Key findings of the study include: